Kelly Pavlik and Miguel Cotto headline a Top Rank Pay-Per-View card this weekend under similar circumstances.

Pavlik and Cotto will both be trying to rebound from their first professional losses, and both will be fighting in front of their giant fan bases. And they’ll do it in different cities.

Pavlik will be fighting in Youngstown, OH for the first time since 2006, and for only the third time in his career. It’s a homecoming that Pavlik has been looking for since winning the middleweight championship from Jermain Taylor in September of 2007. He’ll be taking on veteran Marco Antonio Rubio, the mandatory challenger for his WBC belt.

Cotto will be fighting in New York City once again, the site of his fights against Shane Mosley, Zab Judah and Paulie Malignaggi, among others. Cotto lost his titles when he was knocked out by Antonio Margarito in his first fight in Las Vegas last July. Now he faces Michael Jennings in what should amount to no more than a tune-up.

Cotto’s loss to Margarito has come under a cloud of suspicion, after Margarito was caught with an illegal substance in his hand wraps prior to his loss to Mosley in January. Cotto was seemingly winning the fight early against Margarito, before being broken down by Margarito in the second half of the fight. Cotto may have a legitimate claim that Margarito was fighting with loaded gloves, but he can never prove that. Nevertheless, it could work as a psychiatric condolence that he was beaten by a man that may have been cheating.

While he’ll never get that loss back, Cotto may be able to accept it more readily if he feels that he wasn’t beaten in an honest fight. In any case, Cotto must move on from that fight and get himself back to the top of the welterweight division in the ring.

Step one takes place Saturday night at his home away from home in New York City, when Cotto begins his comeback with a 31-year old fighter from the UK named Michael Jennings. While his 34-1 record appears respectable and attractive, it’s nothing more than a blown up record against D-level opposition.

In his 35 professional fights, Jennings has never left the comforts of the United Kingdom, and must now step into the ring at Madison Square Garden. Not only will he be facing a much better fighter than he’s ever faced, he’ll be facing a much more partisan crowd (against him) than he’s ever had to deal with.

I can’t imagine that the drastic change in quality of opposition, combined with the overwhelming atmosphere will be something that Jennings is capable of dealing with.

I’ll be happy if Jennings makes an effort, which is more than could be said of his fellow countryman Gary Lockett, who took his similar shiny record into the ring against Pavlik last year and did not much more than roll over.

Cotto should be able to have his way with Jennings, regardless of the effort that Jennings puts in. Look for him to pressure Jennings relentlessly, while doing some devastating body work. Anything less than a one-sided beating would be a surprise to me.

This is an important step for Cotto to get back on the winning track, as Margarito’s one year suspension clears the way for a huge rematch with Shane Mosley if Cotto wins this. The better Cotto looks here, the better the chances of the Mosley fight happening.

Prediction: Cotto KO 5.

Meanwhile, over in Youngstown, Pavlik and Rubio are fighting for the WBO, WBC, and Ring Magazine titles. Despite his loss to Bernard Hopkins at the light-heavyweight limit, Pavlik is still the middleweight champion of the world. Rubio is the mandatory challenger for Pavlik’s WBC title.

Pavlik is also coming off of his first career loss — a one-sided decision loss to Hopkins. While Pavlik maintains that sickness and an elbow injury plagued him in that fight, it’s hard to see him winning under any circumstances at that weight with the fight that Hopkins fought.

Nevertheless, it’s time for Pavlik to reaffirm his middleweight champion status, and Rubio is the man they are telling him he has to do it against. Rubio is a solid veteran who should provide a good test for him, but he’s certainly no Hopkins or Jermain Taylor.

A veteran of 48 fights at just 28 years old, Rubio has been around the block. But he’s also been knocked out twice in his life. That’s not a good sign when you are taking on a man who has only heard the scorecards get read five times in 35 fights.

Pavlik exposed a vulnerability against Bernard Hopkins. There is now a blueprint for beating him. Unfortunately for most fighters, you have to be at the level of a Hopkins just to read and execute the blueprint.

I’m sure Rubio will take some things from Hopkins’ gameplan and try to use them, but without having the elite skill level of a Hopkins, I can’t see it working. At least not long enough to win a decision. Rubio will surely try to move and throw first, just as Hopkins did, but I doubt he’ll be able to keep Pavlik off balance as well as Hopkins did.

Rubio is a solid fighter, but there is a strong likelihood that he gets caught with a right hand eventually. Being as he’s been knocked out twice inside of two rounds in his career, and that Pavlik hits as hard, pound-for-pound, as anyone in the sport, I’m expecting Pavlik to land that punch and end the fight. Rubio will give Pavlik a boxing test, but once the right hand lands clean, it’s all over for Rubio.

Hopefully, this fight is the first step towards a Pavlik vs. Arthur Abraham middleweight unification showdown later this year. Unfortunately, the negotiations for a fight between those two have been historically challenging, to say the least. More likely, a Pavlik win sets up a meeting with the undefeated John Duddy sometime in 2009. It’s not nearly as good as an Abraham fight, but if you like blood, you’ll love it.

But first things first…

Prediction: Pavlik KO 6.