Juan Manuel Marquez and Juan Diaz combined to go 2-2 in 2008, with three of the four fights being split-decisions. Both lost early in the year, then came back to win big fights late in the year. With 10 years separating these two warriors, it is a fantastic matchup for both their styles and the points they are at in their respective careers.

Marquez is 49-4-1 in his career, but has gained more recognition in his disputed loss and draw against Manny Pacquiao than all of his wins combined. Since his draw with Pacquiao in 2004 and subsequent loss to Chris John in 2006, Marquez has climbed the pound-for-pound rankings due in large part to the success that Pacquiao has had. Marquez’s ability to give Pacquiao all he can handle has garnered him more attention and credit than his actual ring accomplishments.

That’s not to take anything away from Marquez as a fighter, as he has proven in the ring that he belongs amongst the sport’s elite. But outside of his loss and draw with Pacquiao, Marquez doesn’t have a long list of great wins. His win last year over an aged Joel Casamayor is a nice one to have on the resume, but it comes with a similar footnote as his win over Marco Antonio Barrera the year before. They are both nice names to have on your resume, but at the time of the fight, they were both clearly past their prime.

When fighting elite fighters in their primes, Marquez is 0-3-1, with his losses to Freddie Norwood and Chris John in addition to the Pacquiao fights. Add in the fact that this is only Marquez’s second fight at the lightweight limit, and he had just three fights at super-featherweight and this is a huge challenge for him. This is Marquez’s biggest fight against a younger, top-level opponent not named “Pacquiao” in several years. At 35-years old, Juan Diaz is a massive test for Marquez.

Juan Diaz, on the other hand, is just 25 years old, but he already has been in the ring with some big names. His biggest win was against an aged Acelino Freitas in 2007, and he followed that up with a unification bout with Julio Diaz later that year. His lone loss came to Nate Campbell, in a fight that he fought most of with a vicious gash over his eye from a headbutt. Campbell likely would have beaten him with or without the cut on that night, but Diaz continued to come forward, even when beaten and hurt in that fight, and that’s something Marquez must beware of.

Diaz is a rough fighter. He walks forward, no matter what. He will work the body, he’ll fight on the inside and he’ll put immense amounts of pressure on you.

Marquez is a classic boxer. He will counterpunch you all night long, and beat you with hand speed, accuracy and footwork.

In that sense, the styles are going to make an interesting fight in this matchup.

One of the biggest things that jumps out at me in this fight is the question of how Marquez is going to handle Diaz’s pressure and power. Marquez is a great boxer, but he is no stranger to hitting the canvas. Pacquiao put him down four times in two fights while Barrera and Norwood each dropped him in their bouts.

A knockdown by the naturally bigger and stronger Diaz is not out of the question and if the fight goes to the scorecards, could be the difference.

I’m still not completely sold that Marquez is an elite lightweight. Diaz may not be in the long run either, but at 25 years old, he is a more natural lightweight. If we’ve seen anything over the years, it’s that the lightweight division is not friendly to older fighters. Nate Campbell, Diego Corrales, and Jose Luis Castillo have all had issues with weight, while Joel Casamayor and Acelino Freitas both seemed suddenly old at that weight. How Marquez will handle it at his age, we don’t know. But one thing we do know is that Diaz should be the more comfortable fighter at that weight.

Weight and natural size aside, Marquez carries a huge edge in experience in this fight. When you take a boxer with great smarts and experience and put him in with a young, less experienced slugger, you have the potential for Hopkins-Pavlik.

Since I don’t think that Diaz is as limited when it comes to “Plan-B” as Pavlik was, I don’t think we will see anything that resembles that fight, but I do think that Marquez’s experience can help him where his physical limits hurt him. For these reasons, this is a very tough fight to handicap.

The way I see it is that Marquez has never proven to be elite, except for fights with Manny Pacquiao. Diaz has not shown to be elite per se, but he has shown relentless desire, something Marquez may not have.

If he is disciplined and focused, I think Marquez boxes his way to a clean unanimous decision, but if his head is not in it (as it may not have been against Norwood or John, by reports) then he may be in for a rough night.

I think the potential for either fighter to dominate is their, and when that is the case, I’ll err on the side of caution and predict that they both have their moments, making the fight a close one.

I think Marquez will outbox Diaz early, but Diaz will be able to hurt him at some point in the middle round, shifting the momentum. The fight will become close in the late rounds, and I’ll lean towards the younger, natural lightweight to squeeze out a close win in the championship rounds.

Prediction: Diaz by split-decision.